Last week, we compared lag times in the Illinois Supreme Court’s decision making – grant of review to argument and argument to decision – to the ultimate result in the case, analyzing whether lag time is correlated to the result. The answer is yes – for the most part, affirmances take longer to go from grant to argument, and reversals take longer from argument to decision. So how about the California Supreme Court?
In Table 432, we plot affirmances against reversals for the first half of the case – from the grant of review to oral argument. We see that unlike the Illinois Supreme Court, there’s no particularly consistent relationship between affirmances and reversal in terms of lag time: in fourteen of the past twenty-six years, affirmances have taken longer from grant to argument, and reversals have taken longer in twelve years.
In 1992, reversals averaged 396.43 days, while affirmances averaged 393.75 days from grant to argument. In 1993, affirmances averaged 378.46 days, and reversals averaged 300.47 days. In 1994, affirmances averaged 380.13 days, and reversals averaged 353.12 days. In 1995, affirmances averaged 349.7 days, and reversals averaged 317.5 days. In 1996, reversals averaged 361.1 days, and affirmances averaged 306.1 days. In 1997, reversals averaged 350.16 days, and affirmances averaged 339.78 days. In 1998, affirmances averaged 387.41 days, and reversals averaged 358.56 days. In 1999, affirmances averaged 442.76 days. Reversals averaged 418.42 days.
In 2000, affirmances averaged 502.65 days from grant to argument, and reversals averaged 464.67 days. In 2001, affirmances averaged 456.32 days, and reversals averaged 418.88 days. In 2002, reversals averaged 471 days, and affirmances averaged 398.53 days. In 2003, reversals averaged 456.29 days, while affirmances averaged 419.33 days. In 2004, affirmances averaged 546.92 days, while reversals averaged 451.96 days. In 2005, affirmances averaged 579.9 days, and reversals averaged 499.66 days.
In 2006, reversals averaged 533.74 days from grant to argument, and affirmances averaged 528.61 days. In 2007, affirmances averaged 568.43 days, while reversals averaged 551.82 days. In 2008, reversals took longer – 590.42 days to 562.06 days for affirmances. In 2009, reversals averaged 600.22 days, while affirmances averaged 511.56 days. In 2010, affirmances averaged 653.57 days from grant to argument, and reversals averaged 519.74 days.
In 2011, reversals took longer – 461.68 days to 428.5 days for affirmances. In 2012, affirmances averaged 734.43 days, and reversals averaged 609.63 days. In 2013, affirmances averaged 604.21 days from grant to argument, and reversals averaged 518.13 days. In 2014, affirmances rose to an average of 665.5 days, while reversals averaged 572 days. In 2015, reversals were up to 642.3 days, and affirmances averaged 549.89 days. In 2016, reversals averaged 692.4 days. Affirmances averaged 669.64 days. Last year, reversals averaged 678.3 days, while affirmances averaged only 615.69 days.
So what about the period from argument to decision?
There was no clear relationship between case result and lag time from argument to decision either – affirmances took longer in fifteen of the past twenty-six years. In 1992, affirmances averaged 69.25 days from argument to decision, and reversals averaged 51.11 days. In 1993, affirmances averaged 60.92 days, and reversals averaged 57.88 days. In 1994, affirmances averaged 64.94 days, and reversals averaged 63.79 days. In 1995, affirmances averaged 76.44 days from argument to decision, and reversals averaged 63.13 days. In 1996, reversals averaged 66 days, and affirmances averaged 56.5 days. In 1997, affirmances averaged 73.44 days, and reversals averaged 73.13 days. In 1998, reversals averaged 76.89 days, while affirmances averaged 75.41 days. In 1999, affirmances averaged 79.19 days, while reversals averaged 67.77 days. In 2000, reversals averaged 79.11 days, and affirmances averaged 71.65 days.
In 2001, affirmances averaged 71.79 days, while reversals averaged 69.62 days. In 2002, reversals averaged 76.76 days, while affirmances averaged 72.79 days. In 2003, affirmances averaged 75.17 days, and reversals averaged 73.34 days. In 2004, affirmances averaged 72.67 days, and reversals averaged 70.29 days. In 2005, affirmances averaged slightly longer from argument to decision – 70.76 days to 69.31 days. In 2006, reversals averaged 68.79 days to 65.72 days for affirmances. In 2007, affirmances averaged 72.24 days to 68.36 days for reversals. In 2008, reversals averaged 72.5 days from argument to decision, while affirmance averaged 71.69 days. In 2009, affirmances took longer to decide – 69.17 days to 67.78 days for reversals. In 2010, the result was reversed – reversals averaged 65.09 days, and affirmances averaged 62..14 days. In 2011, affirmances averaged 62.5 days, and reversals averaged 60.4. days. In 2012, civil cases were almost identical by result – affirmances averaged 69.86 days, and reversals averaged 69.37 days. In 2013, reversals averaged 71.53 days, while affirmances averaged 67.07 days.
In 2014, affirmances averaged 75.6 days, while reversals averaged 70.36 days. In 2015, reversals averaged 75.48 days. Affirmances averaged 73.11 days. In 2016, reversals averaged 80.55 days from argument to decision, and affirmances averaged 75.14 days. Last year, reversals averaged 81.09 days. Affirmances averaged 74.88 days.
So how do the two halves of the cases balance out – is result correlated with lag time over the entire span from grant to argument to decision?
Not surprisingly from the data above, the correlation is not strong. Affirmances have taken longer to decide in civil cases in fifteen of the past twenty-six years. Between 1992 and 1995, affirmances consistently took longer than reversals (1992: 463 to 447.54; 1993: 439.38 to 358.34; 1994: 445.06 to 416.91; 1995: 426.15 to 380.63). Reversals took longer in 1996 and 1997, but affirmances once again took longer from 1998 through 2001. For the ten years that followed, the relationship between lag time and result varied almost from one year to the next – neither result was predominant for more than two years at a time. Finally, from 2012 through 2014, affirmances tended to take longer: 804.29 days to 679 days in 2012; 671.29 days to 589.67 days in 2013; 741.1 days to 642.36 days in 2014. From 2015 to 2017, reversals have taken longer: 717.78 days to 623 days in 2015; 772.95 days to 744.79 days in 2016; 759.39 days to 690.56 days in 2017.
Join us back here tomorrow as we continue our analysis of the Court’s data on lag times with a look at the criminal docket.
Image courtesy of Flickr by MoonJazz (no changes).