Last time, we reviewed the Court’s oral arguments in criminal cases at the macro level – data on the whole court.  This time, we’re going micro – what can we predict about individual Justices’ votes and writing based on the oral arguments?

In Table 1024, we report average questions per Justice in criminal cases.  All the Justices except Justice Liu averaged more questions – particularly when adding the rebuttal to the appellant’s opening segment – to appellants than appellees.  Justice Liu averaged 3.76 questions to appellants and 4.82 to appellees.  Pro tem Justices, who sat on every case in 2018, averaged 1.84 questions to appellants, 1.72 to appellees and 0.26 to rebuttals.

When writing the majority opinion, Justices’ questioning increased across the board.  Three Justices – the Chief Justice and Justices Corrigan and Liu – averaged more questions to appellees when writing the majority – while Justices Chin and Cuellar averaged fewer questions.  Justice Chin averaged the highest number of questions to appellants when writing a criminal majority – 6.13.  Justice Corrigan averaged the most questions to appellees in the second segment of argument – 7.5.  Justice Chin averaged the most questions in rebuttal when writing the majority – 1.13.

Only three Justices wrote concurrences in criminal cases during these years – Justice Corrigan averaged 3.5 questions to appellants, 0.5 to appellees and 1 in rebuttal.  Justice Chin averaged four to appellants and two to appellees.  Justice Liu was quite active in cases where he wrote criminal concurrences – seven questions to appellants, 20.5 to appellees and 3.5 in rebuttal.

When writing dissents, Justices Kruger and Chin asked no questions.  The Chief Justice averaged five questions to appellants and two to appellees.  Justice Liu averaged 4.67 questions to appellants, 13.78 to appellees and 1.56 in rebuttals.  Justice Cuellar averaged four questions to appellants, seven to appellees and three in rebuttal.  Pro tems writing dissents averaged two questions to appellants, 2.5 to appellees and one in rebuttal.

When Justices were joining the majority of a criminal affirmance, every Justice averaged more questions to appellants than appellees, just as we would expect.  Only Justice Liu was close – 3.68 questions to appellants, 3.4 to appellees.

Only Justice Chin and the pro tems who joined the Court for one case at a time throughout 2018 averaged more questions to appellants than appellees in reversals.

When dissenting from a criminal affirmance, four Justices – Corrigan, Kruger, Liu and the pro tems – averaged more questions to appellants – the party who lost the overall case – than to the appellees who the individual Justices voted against.

Justices dissenting from a reversal were different – only Justices Liu and the pro tems averaged more questions to the parties they voted for than the parties who won the case.

Finally, we review how often each Justice asked the first question in each segment of the argument – appellant, appellee and rebuttal.  Justice Corrigan led with eleven firsts to appellant, fourteen in rebuttal and twelve to appellees.  Justice Liu had twelve firsts to appellants, five in rebuttal and ten to appellees.  Justice Cuellar had twelve firsts with appellants, three with rebuttals and five to appellees.  Justice Chin had eight firsts to appellants, six to rebuttals and five to appellees.  Justice Kruger had five firsts with appellants, two in rebuttals and six to appellees.  Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye had two firsts with appellants, three to rebuttals and five to appellees.

Join us back here next Tuesday as we turn our attention to a new question.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Ilya Ktsn (no changes).

In our next two posts, we’re reviewing the data for the Court’s oral arguments in criminal cases during 2018.

In all, the Justices asked 1,103 questions of appellants and 896 of appellees.

That works out to 22.06 questions to the appellant, and 17.92 to the appellee.

We’ve shown before that most argument analytics studies have shown that the party getting more questions is likely to lose.  In criminal affirmances last year, appellants averaged 24.06 questions and appellees 15.28.

In split decisions – cases where the Court affirmed in part and reversed in part – appellants averaged 16.4 questions to appellees’ 11.8 questions.

In reversals, as expected, the party defending the Court of Appeal’s decision tended to get questioned more heavily – 26.77 questions for appellees, 19.31 questions for appellants.

Join us back here next time as we take a closer look at the individual Justices’ question patterns.

Image courtesy of Flickr by daveynin (no changes).

Justices Cuellar and Liu were the most frequent questioners during civil cases in 2018.  Justice Cuellar averaged 5.42 questions of appellants, 5.94 of appellees and 0.48 in rebuttals.  Justice Liu averaged 4.33 of appellants, 6.15 of appellees and 1.24 in rebuttals.  Justice Corrigan averaged 2.42 questions in appellants, 2.18 of appellees and 0.64 in rebuttals.  Justice Kruger averaged 3.72 questions of appellants, 3.75 questions of appellees and 0.44 questions in rebuttals.  The Chief Justice averaged 4.17 questions of appellants, 4.9 questions of appellees and 0.8 questions in rebuttals.  Justice Chin averaged 2.85 questions of appellants, 5.67 questions of appellees and 1.21 questions in rebuttals.  Pro tem Justices averaged 1.59 questions of appellants, 1.41 of appellees and 0.53 questions in rebuttals.

Justices writing majority opinions averaged more questions.  Justice Corrigan averaged 8.67 questions of appellants when writing majority opinions, 10 questions of appellees and 0.33 in rebuttals.  Justice Kruger averaged 7.67 questions of appellants, 8.33 questions of appellees and 0.67 questions in rebuttals.  The Chief Justice averaged 7.5 questions of appellants, 7.13 questions of appellees and 0.63 questions in rebuttals.  Justice Chin averaged 5.71 questions of appellants, 6.43 questions of appellees and 2.71 questions in rebuttals.  Justice Cuellar averaged 7.6 questions of appellants, 5.8 questions of appellees and 0.8 questions in rebuttals.  Justice Liu averaged 6.75 questions of appellants, 8.25 questions of appellees and 0.75 questions in rebuttals.

When writing civil concurrences, Justice Kruger averaged 5.5 questions to appellants, 6 questions to appellees and 0.5 questions in rebuttals.  The Chief Justice averaged 4 questions to appellees and none to appellants.  Justice Chin averaged 4.33 questions to appellants, 2.33 questions in rebuttal and 2.33 questions to appellees.  Justice Cuellar averaged 4.5 questions to appellants, 7.5 questions to appellees and 1 question in rebuttal.  Justice Liu averaged 2.67 questions to appellants, 8.33 questions to appellees and 0.67 questions in rebuttal.  Pro tem Justices averaged two questions to appellees and none to appellants or in rebuttals.

Only three Justices wrote civil dissents during 2018.  Justice Chin averaged seven questions to appellants, nine to appellees and four in rebuttal when writing a dissent.  Justice Cuellar averaged eight questions to appellants, seven to appellees and none in rebuttal.  Justice Liu averaged eleven questions to appellants, six to appellees and six in rebuttal.

Only Justice Liu averaged more questions to the winning party when voting with the majority in an affirmance.  Justice Corrigan averaged 1.86 questions to appellants and 0.29 questions in rebuttal.  Justice Kruger averaged 4.15 questions to appellants and 0.23 in rebuttal.  The Chief Justice averaged 5.92 questions to appellants and 0.69 in rebuttal.  Justice Chin averaged 2.93 questions to appellants and 1.21 in rebuttal.  Justice Cuellar averaged 4.21 questions to appellants and 0.43 questions in rebuttal.

Justices Kruger, Cuellar and Liu and Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye followed the expected pattern when they voted with the majority in civil reversals, asking more questions of appellees.  Justice Kruger averaged 4.6 questions of appellees, 3.47 of appellants and 0.67 in rebuttals.  Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye averaged 6.71 questions of appellees, 2.93 of appellant and 1 in rebuttals.  Justice Cuellar averaged 7.07 questions of appellees, 5.73 questions of appellants and 0.4 questions in rebuttal.  Justice Liu averaged 6.73 questions of appellees, 4.93 questions of appellants and 1.73 in rebuttal.

Dissents were rare among the Court’s 2018 civil cases, so it’s difficult to see whether a Justice tended to ask the party he or she was voting against, or the party who would likely lose the most questions.  When dissenting from a civil reversal, Justice Chin averaged seven questions of appellants, four in rebuttal and nine of appellees.  Justice Cuellar averaged eight questions of appellants and seven of appellees.  Justice Liu averaged eleven questions of appellants, six of appellees and six in rebuttal.  Pro tem Justices averaged five questions of appellants, two of appellees and three in rebuttal.

Over longer periods of time, asking the first question is a fairly good indicator that the Justice might be writing an opinion.  For only a single year, it’s a less reliable indicator.  For civil cases in 2018, Justice Cuellar was most often the first questioner, asking the first question of appellants eleven times and ten times of appellees.  Justice Corrigan led off six times to appellants, four to appellees and three in rebuttals.  Justice Kruger began three times to appellants, five to appellees and two in rebuttal.  Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye began four times to appellants, two to appellees and two in rebuttal.  Justice Chin asked the first question five times to appellants, ten times to appellees and six times in rebuttal.  Justice Liu asked the first question seven times of appellants, five of appellees and eight times in rebuttal.  Pro tem Justices asked the first question once of appellees and three times in rebuttal.

Join us next time as we turn our attention to the Court’s criminal arguments for 2018.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Pamla J. Eisenberg (no changes).

This time, we’re looking at the oral arguments in civil cases in 2018.  For new readers, you can review the history of data analytics for oral arguments here.

For civil cases decided last year, the Court asked 958 questions of appellants and 889 of appellees – an average of 29.03 questions to appellants and 26.94 questions to appellees.  A bit of context – as shown in our posts earlier this week at the Illinois Supreme Court Review, the Illinois Supreme Court averaged less than half as many questions to appellants and appellees.

As shown in the discussion of the history of oral argument analytics, the losing party tends to get more questions.  For civil cases decided in 2018, the Court averaged 27.64 questions to appellants and 18.79 to appellees.

What about split decisions, where the Court affirmed in part and reversed in part?  In split civil decisions decided in 2018, the Court averaged 33.25 questions of appellants and 27.75 questions of appellees.

When the Court reversed, appellants got an average of 29.45 questions to 35.73 questions to appellees.

Join us back here next time as we continue our review of the 2018 data.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Will Buckner (no changes).