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Fifty weeks (and just over a hundred posts) ago, we started the California Supreme Court Review, applying statistical and data analytic techniques to studying the decision making of the California Supreme Court.  Our analysis was based upon a data library which we created based on dozens of data points drawn from every one of the Court’s decisions, both civil and criminal, since 2000.  During the past year we’ve studied everything from the geographical sources of the Court’s docket to reversal rates for each District of the Court of Appeal, from the Court’s experience with amicus briefs to why affirmances tend to be pending longer before oral argument is scheduled than reversals are.

Today, we begin the next phase of our analysis.  Over the past few months, we’ve been working on expanding our data library, both by adding additional data points for each of the cases which were already included, and by moving the start point of our data earlier to encompass the entire career on the Court of every current Justice.  The data now includes every case the Court has decided from January 1, 1994 to today – 1,004 civil and 1,293 criminal.  In terms of cases covered, that’s an increase of 44%.  In terms of total data points across the entire span of cases, our data library has more than doubled, to in excess of two hundred thousand data points.

Join us back here tomorrow as we talk about the new parameters we’ve added to our data.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Sean Ellis (no changes).

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Yesterday, we looked at how much correlation there was between result and lag times in death penalty appeals between 2008 and 2016. Today, we’re looking at the non-death penalty criminal docket for the same period.

We started this analysis because of the surprising results looking at civil versus criminal cases – affirmances took about 20 days longer from grant to argument in civil cases, but the gap between lag time for affirmances and reversals was far greater than that in criminal cases. We wondered whether the much larger margin in criminal cases might be the result of the very high affirmance rate in death penalty appeals. Yesterday, we showed that in recent years, death penalty affirmances have not taken consistently much longer than reversals.

Table 189 below goes a long way toward answering our question. The enormous difference between affirmances and reversals in criminal cases isn’t coming from the death penalty docket – it’s coming from non-death appeals.

In 2008, affirmances in non-death cases averaged 852.39 days from grant to argument, while reversals averaged 695.65 days. In 2009, affirmances averaged 732.67 days to 451.22 for reversals. In 2010, reversals averaged slightly longer – affirmances took 626.08 days to 664.36 days for reversals. But in 2011, the usual relationship reasserted itself. Affirmances averaged 1,159.36 days, while reversals averaged 424.64 days. In 2012, affirmances averaged 692.63 days, while reversals averaged 675.29 days. In 2013, affirmances averaged 986.78 days while reversals took only 497 days. In 2014, affirmances averaged 946.73 days to 426.33 for reversals. In 2015, affirmances averaged 882.09 days to 564.27 days for reversals. Finally, last year affirmances averaged 903.11 days from grant to argument, while reversals averaged 518.84 days.

Table 189

In Table 189 below, we review the average lag times from argument to decision in non-death cases. For the most part, reversals were handed down at least slightly more quickly than affirmances were. In 2008, affirmances averaged 71.67 days to 66.25 for reversals. In 2009, affirmances averaged 68.67 days to 74.11 for reversals. In 2010, affirmances averaged 70.88 days from argument to decision, while reversals averaged 68.88 days. In 2011, affirmances took ten days longer – 73.45 days to 63.64 days. In 2012, the margin narrowed to four days, as affirmances averaged 75.04 days to 71.43 days for reversals. In 2013, affirmances averaged 68.89 days to 68.27 for reversals. In 2014, affirmances averaged 69.93 days to 63.67 days for reversals. In 2015, affirmances took nearly two weeks more – 81.27 days to 68.2 days for reversals. In 2016, the relationship reversed as affirmances averaged 68.78 days to 77.26 days for reversals.

Table 190

Join us back here in forty-eight hours for our regular Thursday post as we make a special announcement (and the reason that our regular posts last week were late).

Image courtesy of Flickr by Reverie Rambler (no changes).

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For the past several weeks, we’ve been comparing the Court’s lag times – time to oral argument, and then oral argument to decision – for affirmances as opposed to reversals. We’ve determined that affirmances tend to take longer from outset to argument than reversals do. The difference between affirmances and reversals is much greater for criminal cases than it is for civil cases. That discovery led us to wonder whether the very high affirmance rate in the death penalty docket might be driving the aggregate numbers. So we divided up the criminal docket between death penalty and non-death cases.

In Table 187 below, we show the year-by-year data for lag times in death penalty appeals from the appointment of capital counsel to oral arguments, divided between affirmances and reversals for the years 2008 through 2016. The data on reversals is fragmentary because outright reversals (including the penalty) are rare in death penalty cases. In 2008 and 2009, affirmances took far longer than reversals did – 3,262.54 (affirmances) to 2,373 days (reversals) in 2008, and 3,186.78 (affirmances) to 2,136.5 (reversals) in 2009. No death penalties were reversed in 2010, and affirmances averaged 3,472.75 days. In 2011, the relationship between results and lag time reversed – affirmances averaged 2,927.76 days, while reversals averaged 3,505 days. But the following year, affirmances averaged 3,591.1 days to 3,149.25 days for reversals.

In 2013, again there were no death penalty reversals. Affirmances averaged 3,760.06 days. In 2014, affirmances averaged 3,845.38 days, while reversals averaged 4,042 days. Reversals again took longer in 2015 – 3.994 days for reversals to 3,375.79 days for affirmances. Last year, all death penalty appeals took longer from counsel to argument, regardless of the result – affirmances averaged 4,571.22 days, while reversals averaged 4,269.33 days.

Table 187

Lag times from argument to decision were not consistently longer for affirmances during these years either. In 2008, affirmances averaged 74.04 days to 62 days for reversals. The following year, affirmances averaged 71.7 days, while reversals were filed in only 48 days. In 2010, affirmances averaged 72.13 days. For 2011, affirmances averaged 71.68 days, while reversals averaged 90 days. In 2012, affirmances averaged 73.57 days to 73 for reversals. In 2013, affirmances were almost flat, averaging 73.11 days. In 2014, affirmances averaged 74.86 days from argument to decision, while reversals were handed down in 63 days. In 2015, affirmances averaged 78.93 days to 83.67 days for reversals. Last year, affirmances averaged 79.89 days to 81.33 days for reversals.

Table 188

Join us back here tomorrow as we look at the non-death penalty criminal docket’s lag times in recent years.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Bernard Spragg (no changes).

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We’ve been reviewing the data for lag time from grant of review to oral argument to decision in criminal cases, dividing the data up to separate non-death and death penalty appeals, searching for an explanation of why lag time for affirmances has been considerably longer than lag time for reversals between 2000 and 2007.  Today, we’re reviewing the data for death penalty appeals between 2000 and 2007.

In contrast to most of the rest of the data, for death penalty appeals, reversals have been pending longer than affirmances.  Reversals have averaged 3,169.458 days from grant of review to argument.  Affirmances have averaged ten months less – 2,876.03 days.

Table 185

The relationship is the same for the lag time between argument and decision.  For reversals in death penalty cases, the average lag time from argument to decision has been 78.75 days.  For affirmances, the average lag time has been 74.17 days.

The data varies widely for the lag time from grant of review to argument.  The standard deviation for affirmances from grant to argument is 973.28.  The standard deviation for reversals is 1,215.37.  For the period from argument to decision, the standard deviation of the lag time for affirmances is 13.133.  The standard deviation of the lag time for reversals is 10.967.

Table 186

Join us back here next Thursday as we turn our attention to a new issue in our continuing analysis of the California Supreme Court’s decision making.

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Over the past two weeks, we’ve demonstrated that in criminal cases as a whole, affirmances are pending substantially longer between grant of review and oral argument than reversals are – roughly 900 days more between 2000 and 2007, and more than 1000 days more between 2008 and 2016.  So I wondered – to what extent is the enormous margin explained by the very high affirmance rate in death penalty cases?  We recalculated the criminal case statistics, dividing the data into non-death penalty and death penalty cases.

Between grant of review and oral argument, affirmances were pending longer for non-death penalty cases than reversals.  Affirmances took an average of 515.43 days from grant to argument, while reversals were pending for 468.6 days.  The data is quite variable – the standard deviation for affirmances between grant and oral argument is 300.68, and the standard deviation for reversals is 235.35.

Table 183

The relationship between the variables is similar for the lag time between oral argument and the decision.  Affirmances averaged 70.45 days from argument to decision between 2000 and 2007.  Reversals averaged 68.59 days.  Not surprisingly, the data for lag times from argument to decision does not vary widely.  The standard deviation for affirmances is 16.05.  The standard deviation for reversals is 17.49.

Table 184

Join us back here tomorrow as we turn our attention to the Court’s death penalty cases between 2000 and 2007.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Jim G. (no changes).

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Yesterday, we showed that affirmances in civil cases between 2008 and 2016 have tended to be pending for longer both between the grant of review and oral argument, and between argument and decision, than reversals were.  Today, we address the Court’s criminal cases between 2008 and 2016.

Our database contains 304 affirmances and 209 reversals.  Affirmances have averaged 2,255.743 days from allowance of the petition for leave to appeal to oral argument, but only 1,117.471 days for reversals from allowance to argument.  The standard deviation for affirmances from allowance to argument was 1,732.426 days, suggesting that a not-insubstantial portion of the Court’s criminal docket were pending for as little as 520 days from grant to argument.  The standard deviation for reversals was 1,404.52 days.

Table 181

We report the average time from argument to decision in Table 182 below.  This is the only measure for which reversals took slightly longer than affirmances – reversals averaged 74.148 days, while affirmances averaged 72.878 days.  Interestingly, there’s considerably more variation in the data for reversals than there is or affirmances.  The standard deviation for affirmances is 17.219, while the standard deviation for reversals was 59.0584.

Table 182

Join us back here on Tuesday as we address another aspect of the lag time data.

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Last week, we demonstrated that the time from grant to oral argument and argument to decision was longer between 2000 and 2007 for affirmances than it was for reversals, both in civil and criminal cases.  This week, we look at the Court’s civil and criminal cases between 2008 and 2016.  We begin with the Court’s civil docket.

Our civil case database includes 104 affirmances and 179 reversals.  From grant of review to argument, the Court averaged 624.9712 days in affirmances, and 589.5556 days in reversals – so about five weeks more for affirmances.  The lag time data was widely scattered; the standard deviation for affirmances was 263.4742 days, and the standard deviation for reversals was 249.5901 days.

Table 179

In Table 180 below, we report the data for reversals in civil cases.  Once again, affirmances took longer, although the difference was very slight.  Affirmances averaged 70.1731 days from argument to decision.  Reversals averaged 69.55 days.  The standard deviation for affirmances from argument to decision was 16.98101 days, while the standard deviation for reversals was 23.60962.

Table 180

Join us back here tomorrow as analyze the Court’s criminal cases from 2008 through 2016.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Damian Gadal (no changes).

 

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Yesterday, we showed that between 2000 and 2007, affirmances took somewhat longer in civil cases than reversals did.  Today, we address the Court’s criminal cases for the same years.

We report the data for lag time from grant of review to oral argument in Table 177 below.  As the chart reflects, once again, affirmances took longer than reversals did – in the case of criminal cases, substantially longer.  Our data includes 273 affirmances and 209 reversals.  Affirmances averaged 1,641.99 days from grant of review to oral argument, while reversals averaged only 752.62 days.  That said, the data is widely variable; the standard deviation for affirmances from grant to argument is 1,372.49, while the standard deviation for reversals is 1,010.499.

 

Table 177A

In Table 178 below, we report the data for criminal cases from oral argument to decision.  Once again, affirmances took slightly longer.  Affirmances averaged 72.27 days from argument to decision.  Reversals took 69.67 days.  Not surprisingly, given the ninety-day statutory limit, the standard deviation is not high.  The standard deviation for affirmances is 14.86.  The standard deviation for reversals is 20.11.

Table 178A

Join us back here next Thursday as we look at the Court’s docket between 2008 and 2016.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Nick Ares (no changes).

 

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For the past two weeks, we’ve been reviewing the average time civil and criminal cases have remained pending from grant of review to argument to decision.  This week and next, we’ll be addressing whether there is any correlation between the lag time of the Court’s cases and the ultimate result.  In other words, do affirmances (or reversals) tend to take longer to decide?

Our data includes 157 affirmances and 230 reversals between 2000 and 2007.  The average time from grant of review to oral argument in affirmances is 583 days.  The average time from grant of review to oral argument in reversals in 558.28 days.  There is major variability in the data.  The days from grant to argument in affirmances had a standard deviation of 245.54, while days from grant to argument in reversals was 199.34.

Table 175

We report the average days from oral argument to decision for affirmances and reversals in Table 176 below.  Because the Court is required, with very limited exceptions, to decide cases within ninety days of oral argument, there’s comparatively little variation in this data (although affirmances take slightly longer).  Civil affirmances averaged 72.33 days to 71.67 days for reversals.  For affirmances, the standard deviation from argument to decision is 15.99.  For reversals, it’s 19.95.

Table 176

Join us back here tomorrow as we review the data for criminal cases between 2000 and 2007.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Ken Lund (no changes).

 

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Yesterday, we analyzed the lag times – from grant of review to oral argument, and oral argument to decision – in the Court’s civil docket from 2008 to 2016.  Today, we’ll address the data for the criminal docket.  One definition – for cases such as the death penalty docket where there is no grant of review, we use the date on which counsel is appointed as the closest possible proxy.

Like the civil docket, there is evidence that lag times are increasing on the criminal side.  The mean time from grant to oral argument only exceeded 1,600 days one year between 2000 and 2007.  Since that time, it’s only fallen below 1,600 once.  In 2008, the mean days from grant to argument was 1,717.46 days.  For 2009, it was down to 1,620.92, and for 2010, it was down to 1,575.08, but the lag has increased since then.  In 2011, the average was 1,870.53 days.  In 2012, it fell to 1,648.13.  In 2013, it was up to 1,763.52, and increased further to 1,947.33 in 2014.  In 2015, the average fell a bit to 1,883.8, but it was up sharply in 2016 to 2,420.79 days.

Table 173

We report the mean lag time from argument to decision for the same years in Table 174 below.  With the exception of the past two years, the average time from argument to decision in criminal cases has been flat for years – 70.24 in 2008, 70.74 in 2009, 20.6 in 2010, 70.22 in 2011, 72.81 in 2012, 70.96 in 2013 and 70.36 in 2014.  It increased to 90.95 in 2015 – the result of a few outlier cases – before falling back to 77.5 days last year.

Table 174

Join us back here next Thursday as we turn our attention to a new topic in our ongoing study.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Nick Ares (no changes).